Responding to Gazette Articles and Editorials

This article was published in the Virginia Gazette.

8/10/08

Dear School Supporters,

Here we go again.

Reading the Virginia Gazette, it is evident that the same arguments that were used to delay the third high school, which ended up costing taxpayers millions, are being rolled out again to delay the next elementary and middle school:

1) student enrollment projections are "faulty",
2) space in existing schools is being used "poorly", and
3) long-term budget planning is "inaccurate".

Let's look at each one by one.

Enrollment Projections

Support for the third high finally converged when the "cohort-survival" method of enrollment projections (which decently projects enrollment for a year or two out) was substituted for a more robust model, done by professional consultants (which utilized the cohort-survival method as well as county housing data, regression-base forecasting methods, land-saturation analysis, migration/change in household composition, and GIS technology), and then actual enrollment matched or exceeded the projections.

(For those who want to see everything taken into consideration in the new enrollment projection methodology, take a look at the 30-page report done in 2007 HERE .) Presumably a new one will be done in fall 2008.

Now, might the projections be a little off due to the slow down in the economy? Perhaps. We'll wait and see what the actual September 30 enrollments look like. But the Gazette reported that the "budget advisors" ARE CONVINCED (by what we don't know because no data is presented) that more public school students will be going to private schools. If anything, as household budgets tighten, one might expect the trend to go in the OPPOSITE direction, with private school children coming INTO public schools, but even that is just conjecture.

It does sound a bit "screwy" (to quote a Gazette editorial) to build schools and not use them, but at least thought is being given to building the schools now to take advantage of the downturn in the market to get a great deal on construction costs, rather than putting off construction. By not using the schools though, we continue house kids outside of school buildings and waste money on trailers.

Use of Space in Schools

Third high and eighth elementary detractors also tried to argue space was used inefficiently in order to delay building. What happened? Not only was instruction taking place in trailers, but also in faculty lounges, closets and other places in which it was never intended.

The division hired a professional school construction firm to examine each school and determine capacity. That data is included in the enrollment projection report (see page 5 of this document). But now the "budget advisors" are going to do their own report. More power to them. We'll see what they produce and the methodology they use. I hope they remember that any capacity projection has to be tempered with the practical nature of what actually happens in schools. Kids don't come in neat packages or 20 or 25, struggling students and those with special needs require areas for smaller groups, and special programs also need space. So even if a school's enrollment is a bit under "capacity," the school may still be well utilized. And a little breathing room is okay, folks; it also allows for some innovative programming and room for growth.

Outyear Budget Projections

As far as the school division's outyear budget projections, they don't appear to be unreasonable, but the projections are likely on the high side.

The 5% per year salary increase may be optimistic, but it would certainly keep us highly competitive and help us attract and retain the best teachers, principals and other staff.

A fringe benefit increase of 10% a year may be high, but you never know what will happen with health insurance costs or the Virginia Retirement System.

A 10% projected increase in utility costs per year may be high if costs level off. We can only hope.

Other costs are projected to increase 3% year, basically to keep up with inflation, and hopefully inflation stays low.

So the division's budget projections may be a little high, but better to work down from there than the other way around.

All that said, the county is going to have to come to terms with the fact that as school enrollment increases, new schools will be needed (along with all the staff and operating costs that follow), and ultimately they have to be paid for, plain and simple. This community will not have it any other way and we need to keep reminding our elected officials of this.

Thank you for supporting our schools, and all our students.

Mike Ludwick